Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Upper troughing will persist over the eastern U.S., with the trough axis remaining roughly oriented from the Lower Great Lakes toward the central/southern Appalachians. This will result in modest southwesterly deep-layer flow across region, with somewhat strong vertical wind profiles expected across the Northeast (and decreasing with southward extent across central/southern Appalachians). A surface trough/weak front will extend from the Upper OH Valley southward toward northern GA Thursday morning, with this feature drifting eastward through early Friday. Southerly low-level flow east of the surface trough/boundary, will maintain a seasonally moist boundary layer (60s F dewpoints). This will support moderate destabilization across the region, with pockets of strong instability possible near/west of the I-95 corridor from northern VA into southern/central NY.

Vertically veering wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggesting organized storms structures and possible transient supercells. Damaging winds and occasional hail will be the main hazards with storms through Thursday evening. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small, but favorably curved, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 where backed low-level winds persist. Given the moist boundary layer and sufficient steep low-level lapse rates, a tornado or two also will be possible.

Vertical shear decreases with southward extent across the Appalachians. However, high PW and sufficient instability will exist that thunderstorm clusters could produce wet microbursts and sporadic wind damage of marginal hail as far south as northeast TN/northwest NC.

Central Plains

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Thursday as the western upper ridging begins to shift east over the High Plains. This will likely suppress convective coverage somewhat. However, modest vorticity maxima rotating through northwesterly flow aloft and stronger heating across the modestly moist airmass, along with possible outflow from prior convection will support isolated thunderstorm development from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska. Elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35+ kt amid steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large hail will be possible, with some potential for hail greater than 2 inch diameter. Overall storm coverage is expected to remain low, precluding higher severe probabilities.

Additional thunderstorms are possible with upslope flow along the CO foothills vicinity. Weaker vertical shear is expected compared to further north, but the environment will still support marginal hail with stronger updrafts.

Northern Rockies

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase as an upper shortwave trough moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest into MT and Alberta. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest destabilization by early afternoon and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Given stronger flow aloft, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as convection develops east/northeast through early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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