Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis
Tranquil conditions will exist across much of the contiguous United States through tonight. Extensive surface high pressure influencing much of the central and eastern U.S. will favor offshore flow into the northern Gulf of America and feature a seasonably dry/stable airmass. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over south FL and the Keys to the north of a surface front undergoing frontolysis across the southern Gulf and FL Straits. Farther west, an upper trough migrating northeast across the Four Corners will be associated with isolated showers/thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest.
..Smith/Supinie.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will linger off the East Coast while an upper trough amplifies just off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a leading wave will affect the area from Baja CA into the Four Corners states.
Instability will be minimal over most of the CONUS due to an area of high pressure, with the surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. The exceptions will be near the FL Keys where moist easterly winds will persist, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and over AZ and NM, where midlevel moisture will support weak instability. In either case, severe weather is not anticipated due to weak instability.
..Jewell.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will amplify while progressing into the Interior West on Tuesday. As this occurs, deep-layer ascent and cooler temperatures aloft will encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development over multiple locales. Preceding the main upper trough, a 500 mb wind maximum accompanying multiple low-amplitude impulses will overspread low-level moisture over the Desert Southwest, as well as portions of the Great Basin, resulting in thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon. By later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, deep-layer ascent associated with the approach of the primary upper trough will overspread parts of CA. Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread a marine boundary layer, encouraging lightning flashes along the CA shoreline late in the period.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 21 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 23 | low / uncertain |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 25 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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