Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern High Plains, parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270058

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND ALSO FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS REGIONS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern High Plains, parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Central/southern High Plains

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains. The most favorable environment resides from eastern CO into western KS, with moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt within a northwesterly flow regime. The strongest discrete cells in this area will continue to pose a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some modest clustering remains possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated severe-wind threat as convection spreads into western KS later tonight.

Deep-layer flow/shear is generally weaker across the southern High Plains, but localized strong to severe gusts will remain possible within the well-mixed environment through at least dusk. ### AR into the Lower MS Valley

Widespread deep convection from southeastern OK into central/southern AR may eventually evolve into a loosely organized, outflow-driven cluster with time this evening. This could result in a threat for scattered wind damage spreading into northern LA through the evening, with an isolated threat possible later tonight as storms approach the LA/MS Gulf Coasts.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

Scattered storms are ongoing from parts of Lower MI into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The combination of moderate buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear (generally 25-35 kt of effective shear) has only been supportive of an isolated severe threat thus far. No substantial improvement in the environment is expected through the evening, but ongoing storms may continue to pose an isolated severe threat before convection generally subsides later tonight.

..Dean.. 08/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies vicinity.

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Upper troughing will persist over the eastern U.S., with the trough axis remaining roughly oriented from the Lower Great Lakes toward the central/southern Appalachians. This will result in modest southwesterly deep-layer flow across region, with somewhat strong vertical wind profiles expected across the Northeast (and decreasing with southward extent across central/southern Appalachians). A surface trough/weak front will extend from the Upper OH Valley southward toward northern GA Thursday morning, with this feature drifting eastward through early Friday. Southerly low-level flow east of the surface trough/boundary, will maintain a seasonally moist boundary layer (60s F dewpoints). This will support moderate destabilization across the region, with pockets of strong instability possible near/west of the I-95 corridor from northern VA into southern/central NY.

Vertically veering wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggesting organized storms structures and possible transient supercells. Damaging winds and occasional hail will be the main hazards with storms through Thursday evening. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small, but favorably curved, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 where backed low-level winds persist. Given the moist boundary layer and sufficient steep low-level lapse rates, a tornado or two also will be possible.

Vertical shear decreases with southward extent across the Appalachians. However, high PW and sufficient instability will exist that thunderstorm clusters could produce wet microbursts and sporadic wind damage of marginal hail as far south as northeast TN/northwest NC.

Central Plains

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Thursday as the western upper ridging begins to shift east over the High Plains. This will likely suppress convective coverage somewhat. However, modest vorticity maxima rotating through northwesterly flow aloft and stronger heating across the modestly moist airmass, along with possible outflow from prior convection will support isolated thunderstorm development from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska. Elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35+ kt amid steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large hail will be possible, with some potential for hail greater than 2 inch diameter. Overall storm coverage is expected to remain low, precluding higher severe probabilities.

Additional thunderstorms are possible with upslope flow along the CO foothills vicinity. Weaker vertical shear is expected compared to further north, but the environment will still support marginal hail with stronger updrafts.

Northern Rockies

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase as an upper shortwave trough moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest into MT and Alberta. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest destabilization by early afternoon and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Given stronger flow aloft, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as convection develops east/northeast through early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261907

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…AND FROM NORTH GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

Northern/Central Plains

An upper ridge, centered from the southern Rockies to the western Dakotas will persist on Friday. Some enhancement to west/northwesterly flow aloft is forecast, and a surface trough will develop across the northern and central High Plains. Southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will transport 60s F dewpoints northward from the central into the northern Plains. As a low-level jet strengthens during the evening, thunderstorm development is possible. Capping may limit surface-based convection. However, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. If storms develop, large hail will be possible.

North GA into southeast VA

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Friday. Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest while a surface trough extends from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. East of the trough, a very moist airmass will be in place. Daytime heating of this very moist/high PW airmass will support moderate destabilization, and thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop over higher terrain. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting organized convection. Nevertheless, wet microbursts could produce sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260842 SPC AC 260842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday - Northern Plains to Upper Midwest

A mid-level ridge will move slowly east across the Plains with slight suppression through the day. A lee trough will consolidate into a surface low across the northern Plains through the day Saturday. Ahead of this surface low, strong instability is forecast across South Dakota and vicinity. Despite the favorable environment across this region, primary forcing will be focused on the nose of the low-level jet across Iowa and into Wisconsin, well east of the greatest instability and near the Canadian border. Therefore, limited storm coverage precludes severe weather probabilities at this time, but given the favorable environment, it will need to be monitored closely.

D5/Sunday - North Dakota and Vicinity

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5. 00Z guidance has come into fairly consistent agreement with the location and amplitude of this trough across eastern Montana at 00Z Sunday evening. However, there is considerable disagreement with the degree of destabilization across North Dakota, where forcing will be greatest. The GFS dry bias across most of the Plains has severely lessened the instability. However, despite this challenge, it is apparent that most of the instability significantly southeast of the upper-level forcing. The GFS-Para seems to have a more realistic handle on low-level moisture/instability magnitude but it also shows a significant disconnect between where this instability is located and the deeper forcing.

The deterministic ECMWF forecast shows a potentially significant severe weather event across North Dakota with strong instability and shear ahead of a robust convective QPF signal. This is supported by the AI-ECMWF which shows a similar evolution. However, the EC-ensemble mean of instability shows at least some trend toward the GEFS with primary instability southeast of the best forcing.

It is also worth noting that the wave is forecast to eject across North Dakota relatively late (~06Z) which may be a somewhat limiting factor to a greater threat. This potential timing disconnect, combined with some hint of limited overlap between the greatest instability and the primary upper forcing, cast enough uncertainty to preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, it is worth noting that if a solution similar to the ECMWF materializes, a significant severe weather event is possible.

D6 and Beyond

By early next week, the primary mid-level ridge appears to center around the southern Appalachians with broad southwesterly flow from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. Within this area of southwesterly flow, multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast. Predictability of these smaller scale features is relatively low at this range, but some continued severe weather threat will likely persist around the periphery of the ridge from the Plains to the Great Lakes and potentially into the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 26

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, August 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, August 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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