Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern High Plains, parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270058

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND ALSO FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS REGIONS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern High Plains, parts of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Central/southern High Plains

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains. The most favorable environment resides from eastern CO into western KS, with moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kt within a northwesterly flow regime. The strongest discrete cells in this area will continue to pose a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some modest clustering remains possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated severe-wind threat as convection spreads into western KS later tonight.

Deep-layer flow/shear is generally weaker across the southern High Plains, but localized strong to severe gusts will remain possible within the well-mixed environment through at least dusk. ### AR into the Lower MS Valley

Widespread deep convection from southeastern OK into central/southern AR may eventually evolve into a loosely organized, outflow-driven cluster with time this evening. This could result in a threat for scattered wind damage spreading into northern LA through the evening, with an isolated threat possible later tonight as storms approach the LA/MS Gulf Coasts.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

Scattered storms are ongoing from parts of Lower MI into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The combination of moderate buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear (generally 25-35 kt of effective shear) has only been supportive of an isolated severe threat thus far. No substantial improvement in the environment is expected through the evening, but ongoing storms may continue to pose an isolated severe threat before convection generally subsides later tonight.

..Dean.. 08/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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