Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, October 21

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 21	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, October 22	low / uncertain
Day 6	Friday, October 23	low / uncertain
Day 7	Saturday, October 24	low / uncertain
Day 8	Sunday, October 25	low / uncertain

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180755 SPC AC 180755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Interior West Wednesday-Friday, before ejecting into the central and northern Plains by the weekend. As the upper trough traverses the Interior West, modest low-level moisture will advect ahead of it across the Desert Southwest to the High Plains late next week into the weekend. Despite strong forcing accompanying the upper trough, deterministic guidance still shows relatively weak buoyancy across the warm sector over the Southwest to the High Plains, with only occasional favorable overlaps with stronger vertical wind shear. Such setups would typically favor strong to isolated severe storms, as also indicated by a consensus of available ML/AI calibrated guidance.

..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, October 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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